The promise
Every dealer level we publish gets graded against what price actually did the next session. We bank the grade next to the measurements that produced it, so anyone can reproduce the rate from the data. Nothing gets retold after the close, and the sample size always ships with the rate.
What gets published
Twice a market day, for the most options-active names:
- The call wall. Where dealer hedging tends to defend a move up.
- The put wall. Where it tends to defend a move down.
- The gamma flip. Where hedging switches from pinning a range to chasing the trend.
- Heat. A one-number read on how active a name is right now.
- Plays at the walls. The covered-call and cash-secured-put strikes worth selling, sized to the levels.
How accuracy gets measured
The morning after each close, an automated pass reads yesterday's walls and asks one question of each: did price stay near it, move away from it, blow through it, or never test it? Those are the four grades, pinned, rejected, broke, and untested. Each is a fixed-threshold math question, applied the same way to every name. No human judgment touches the call.
What we publish about ourselves
The homepage "scored in public" line is our cumulative held-rate over time: how often our walls held when actually tested, from the first scored session to the latest. A Wilson 95% band rides with it and narrows as the sample grows. The rate publishes at n=30 tested walls; below that the section shows counts only.
We publish a rate, not a dollar P&L. The rate is our honest claim; the trade sized to it is yours. The denominator is tested walls only (held + broke), so untested walls never pad it. Per-ticker reliability shows on each name's page once it has enough scored walls to mean something, and the Friday card posts the week's universe-wide grades to Discord. These are our live calls, computed once and read everywhere, so no two surfaces disagree.
Each scored level also carries a hold-rate: how often a wall there has held when tested, measured across the past year of sessions. It's the base rate behind the level, a deeper read than the running tally above.
The fine print
A few conventions are baked into the numbers. None is a mistake; they are the standard lane, worth knowing if you cross-check against another source.
- Dealer positioning is a model, not a measurement. The gamma figures assume the standard convention that dealers are long the call side and short the put side. Real books carry both and are not observable from outside a firm. Read the walls and the flip as a probability map, never a claim about who is literally long or short.
- Horizons. Unusual and Premium rows carry a horizon badge by days-to-expiry: weekly (1 to 7), monthly (8 to 45, the wheel range), and LEAPS (46+). 0DTE is filtered out. The badge helps you self-filter; it never changes the ranking.
- Confluence. When a wall sits within 0.5% of a standard Fibonacci retracement of the trailing ~60-session swing, the row says so. It is a credibility multiplier on the wall, not a level of its own.
- ATR is a simple average. We use the arithmetic mean of the trailing 14 true ranges, not Wilder's smoothing. More reproducible and easier to audit; expect a few cents of difference from a charting platform.
Why this matters
Most accounts and most paid services publish calls and never publish their hit rate. A 64% claim at n=8 is noise; the same claim at n=200 is signal. We publish the rate, the count, and the window, every time. That record banks over real scored sessions; nobody can generate it on demand, and that is the part nobody can clone.
